100 Wins for the Phillies?

Today is the first day of spring training for the Philadelphia Phillies. With football season long gone, it's now time to look forward to the team that plays across the street from the Eagles and the team from Philadelphia that has the most realistic chance to win a championship. I for one am extremely excited about season and very optimistic that the Phillies will win another World Series. Like most Phillies fans, my first order of business will be to listen to the 4 Aces and Joe Blanton press conference at 1:30pm today. Leading up to today, there has been a lot of talk on local sports radio about how many games the Phillies will win this year. From what I've heard it sounds like Vegas for the most is setting the over/under line at 96.5 wins this year. To me this number sounds on the low side and I'll tell you right now my top three reason why the Phillies will get to 100 wins.

1) The Four Aces + Joe

Ever since re-acquiring Cliff Lee, nobody has stopped talking about what could possibly be one of the greatest rotations of all time. Not only do we have two of the best pitchers in the league going #1 and #1A in Halladay and Lee, Roy Oswalt, who has always been a #1 or #2, moves to a #3, a former World Series MVP moves to a #4, and Joe Blanton all of a sudden becomes the best #5 starter in all of baseball. Baring any major injuries, large dips in performance (Hamels in 2009) or natural disaster, this rotation could easily combine for 60+ wins.

2) Cupcake Division

While the Phillies are certainly the cream of the crop in the National League, the division is which they play isn't particularly all that competitive. The Mets have taken numerous steps back in recent years and finished a distant 4th in 2010. Their position players continue to underachieve and Johan Santana seems to be the only pitcher with any consistency. Even with the recent acquisition of Jason Werth, the Nationals are still the Nationals and will be without Strasburg. It would surprised to see this team compile more than 70 wins this year. The only team that the Phillies should even think about being concerned with is the Braves. The Braves finished second in the division last year behind some strong pitching and with the recent acquisition of Dan Uggla, they should be the only team that could challenge the Phillies.

3) Position Players Bounce Back

Last year was not a great year by any stretch of the imagination for the Phillies line up. Not a single player everyday player finished with an avg over .300 (Polanco was tops with .298), Rollins had statistically one of the worst years of his career, Utley was once again plagued by injury, and Ryan Howard finished below 40 HRs for the first time in 4 years. That being said, this lineup as much as they under performed still made it to the NLCS. Expect the core of Rollins, Utley and Howard to have rebound years and look for the emergence of Dominic Brown, replacing Jayson Werth, who absolutely dominated the minors.